Wednesday 25 Jan 2017
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Prognostic model scenario calculation

Prognostic model scenario calculations are processed in order to get a deeper understanding of possible distribution pathways of substances (e.g. water soluble substances or liquid substances insoluble in water) that could pass into the course of the river. The tracer modul of the utilized model system was adapted to the model region and is taking into account information such as water level, flow velocity, water and air temperature, and salinity of the river water.

A first prognostic model calculation of the distribution of a water soluble substance is shown in Figure 1. The initial parameters of this scenario are mean water level, ebb tide, and introduction of the substance over an area of 25m x 25m. Three snaphots display - from left to right - the start of the spreading (t=0) as well as 2 different stages of the distribution after 8 hours and after 15 hours.

 

 

  

 

Figure 1: Snapshots of prognostic model calculation - distribution of a water soluble substance in the Yellow River mouth at t=0, t=8, t=15 (from left to right).

 

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